Against that backdrop, you might expect Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates to backtrack from some of the bearishness he’s professed on Tech Ticker (and elsewhere) in the past year. But you’d be wrong.

“The consumer is in worse shape since I was here last” in August, Davidowitz says, citing the following:

• Unemployment has exploded: “We’ve lost a ton of jobs since I was here last,” Davidowitz says, noting the “real” unemployment rate is 17.5%. “That’s an astounding number.”
• Housing continues to sink: “The consumers’ biggest asset is down trillions” in value while “foreclosures are exploding” and a huge percentage have negative equity — 23% according to CoreLogic.
• Record numbers of consumer bankruptcies: The American consumer has “never been further behind…never defaulted more” on mortgages, student loans, auto loans, and credit card bills, he says.
• Poverty on the Rise: One in eight Americans and one in four children are receiving food stamps, as The NYT reported this weekend.

“A lot of people were out on Black Friday — you’re always going to spend some money because it’s Christmas,” he says. “[But] the consumer continues to get dramatically worse.”

Davidowitz predicts “the noise will be taken out” about “strong” Black Friday sales in the coming weeks and a sobering reality will settle in: “People will look a stores closing and a rash of bankruptcies after Christmas. People will start to look at this and say ‘wow, this is terrible,’” he says.