OPEC has just cut its oil demand forecast for OPEC-produced oil, citing a slow-down in the global economy as the supportive effects of government stimulus wear off and increased non-OPEC oil supply. The organization noted that, “the impact of the slowing economic recovery on oil demand is already evident as growth in oil consumption is slowing down and has even turned negative in some parts of the world,” according to Fox Business,

Their latest move highlights the twin drivers of any potential oil glut scenario:

• The stagnation of demand growth from major developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe
• The growth of non-OPEC oil supply.

Already, the U.S. is sitting on more oil than it has in decades:

Fortune:

Despite the Iraq War and the resulting production disruptions, despite the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf, despite turmoil in Nigeria and ongoing cross-border transshipment quarrels in Central Asia and the multiple, repeated declarations that “peak oil” has arrived and supplies will inevitably dwindle, the United States has more petroleum on hand today than it has had since at least the beginning of the first Gulf War.

…

At the same time, consumers have finally responded to higher gas prices and, perhaps, concern over the environmental impacts of burning fossil fuels. Miles driven by U.S. motorists have fallen over the last couple of years for the first time since such statistics have been collected, indicating that the American love affair with the automobile could be waning. And gasoline demand in China, the world’s largest automotive market, may not skyrocket after all, as the government ramps up its drive to replace internal combustion engines with electric vehicles.

Global demand forecasts are coming down as well:

“In the last 18 months we’ve seen this big trend emerge,” says David Kirsch, research director at PFC Energy in Washington, D.C. “We spent five to 10 years in a supply-constrained market, characterized by the growth of the BRIC countries [Brazil, Russia, India and China] and concerns over the security of supplies.”

Now, Kirsch remarks, because of the financial crisis and the time it will take to pare down the debt of the major OECD nations, demand growth over the next decade is likely to be lower than previously forecast.

Oil itself seems to have been stuck in a trading range over the last year as shown by the chart from Finviz below, so far either undecided or oblivious to the potential for a glut.

Problem is, in the end, forecasting oil demand has been a fool’s errand historically, so the oil glut theorists have as much visibility as yesterday’s peak oil proponents.

Adam Brandt, a professor at Stanford’s Department of Energy Resources Engineering, released a study last month examining the various models that have been used to predict the future of world oil supplies. “Data do not support assertions that any one model type is most useful for forecasting future oil production,” Brandt concludes. “In fact, evidence suggests that existing models have fared poorly in predicting global oil production.”

We’ve republished a telling chart from a previous post below, showing just how wrong oil forecasts can be. Previously, they were too bearish, so perhaps they’ve now become too bullish?

Whatever happens, should a substantial oversupply of oil appear (relative to where oil is now), then expect a sharp and sudden drop in the price of black gold. Why? Because its price activity has become highly correlated with financial speculators’ activity. Which means, if speculators flee en masse, look out below. (Personally, we happen to be bearish on oil for the remainder of 2010, while still bullish on the long-term however)

Emerging markets (with the inclusion of Australia, Germany, and a few other developed peers), are leading the field in positive employment numbers. Driven by structural growth, a strong export recovery, and increasing domestic consumption appetites, nations like China and Brazil are rapidly adding staff.

We’ve compiled a list of the 5 nations where the average citizens are most likely to get hired, and 5 nations where the same average Joe is most likely to be sitting at a local bar, pink slip in hand. The “Net Employment Outlook” figure for each slide is the percentage of employers looking to hire minus the percentage looking to fire during the Fourth Quarter (based on Manpower’s employer interviews).

HIRING: Australia

+20% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

Hiring spree: Aussie employers added 30,900 workers in August, almost 6,000 more than media estimates.

Where are the jobs? Finance, real estate, and insurance all looked promising, as well as jobs in the Services sector and Mining & Construction. Not to mention, Australia’s minimum hourly wage is $15.

The catch: But, if business relations and trade continue to intertwine the economies of Australia and China, there may be reason to fear a massive influx of foreign workers onto Aussie shores (or a strong trend of outsourcing work to China).

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey 

HIRING: Singapore

+22% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 2.3%

Hiring spree: The Ministry of Education plans to ramp up the number of teachers by 10% in the next 5 years, unlike what’s currently happening in New York.

Where are the jobs? Unlike many of its former Asian Tigers and BRIC competitors, Singapore’s positive job growth is led by hiring boosts in the Public Administration/ Education and Wholesale/ Retail Trade sectors. Southeast Asia’s fourth-largest economy grew at a shattering pace of 18.1% in the first half of 2010.

The catch: Despite the slap-happy news. let’s not forget that however immaculate and efficient this island may be, its population and land mass still severely limits the country’s ability to truly diversify its economy and wean itself from its export-led development model.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey 

HIRING: Brazil

+37% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 6.9%

Hiring spree: IBM recently announced that it will be opening its first South American research center in Brazil and will be tapping into the nation’s 250,000-strong market for IT professionals.

Where are the jobs? Financial Services, Real Estate, and Insurance sectors once again lead positive job outlooks despite the fact that Brazil is best known for its commodity titans. While this LatAm powerhouse may have claimed its economic clout by tapping its natural resources, Brazil’s rapidly expanding middle class is paving the way for growth in its commercial banking, consumer retail, and homebuilding industries.

The catch: According to the New York Times, Brazil’s education gap is still severe (trails even developing countries like Uruguay and Mexico) and could impede the country from maximizing its favorable “demographic window” over the next few decades as the young folks vastly outnumber the elderly.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey

*The “Net Employment Outlook” figure for each slide is the percentage of employers looking to hire minus the percentage looking to fire during the Fourth Quarter.

HIRING: Taiwan

+40% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 5.2%

Hiring spree: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the island’s largest firm by market cap, plans to hire as many as 8,000 new workers at a new branch in the country.

Where are the jobs? Manufacturing and Services are both leading the hiring rally in Taiwan. Manufacturing, especially got a boost in the last few months as global demand for Taiwan’s electronic exports recovered – prompting employers in the sector to add staff.

The catch: As with Singapore, Taiwan’s economy is small relative to the BRICs and still heavily reliant on exports rather than domestic consumption as its backbone.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey 

HIRING: China

+51% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Hiring spree: Citigroup is planning to hire up to 12,000 employees on the Mainland over the next three years, tripling its current workforce. 

Where are the jobs? The sectors most avidly spawning jobs are the Financial Services/ Insurance/ Real Estate trio (55% firms on the hire) and Services (54% firms on the hire). The hiring binge from both domestic firms and foreign MNCs parallel EM investors’ bullish sentiments on the country’s growth.

The catch: According to CMR Managing Director Shaun Rein, hiring and retaining talent amongst China’s university graduates are one of the biggest problems faced by recruiters who are looking to fill spots on the Mainland. The annual turnover rate (according to Rein’s personal estimates) is 30% for domestic hires, a figure that flashes red to any seasoned HR professional.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey 

And these are the countries you should avoid…

FIRING: United States

+4% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 9.6%

Firing spree: Nearly 25% of executives at Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest military firm, have applied for buyout packages as the Pentagon hints toward a budget tightening.

Where are the jobs? The Finance & Business Services and Mining sectors report optimistic hiring outlooks for the Fourth quarter, with New York securities firms adding nearly 2,000 jobs since February of 2010.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey

FIRING: United Kingdom

+2% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment Rate: 7.8%

Firing Spree: The Royal Bank of Scotland has so far cut 20,600 jobs in the current downturn.

Where are the jobs? Finance and Business Services, as well as Utilities, still seem like the go-to sectors for jobs, despite the RBS firing massacre detailed above. The finance sector will still have to overcome regulatory moves by Cameron and his posse, especially limits on prop trading, in order to retain talent in its London branches.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey

FIRING: France

+0% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 9.7%

Firing spree: Sarkozy’s plan to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62 sparked mass riots in Paris this month, which severely disrupted schools, public services, and domestic air services.

Where are the jobs? Agriculture and Forestry reported cautiously optimistic jobs prospects while the Restaurant and Hospitality sector continues to remain a bulwark of steady employment in these uncertain times.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey

FIRING: Spain

-1% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 20.1%

Firing spree: Unemployment amongst the 16-24 year old crowd was 42.9% as of December, 2009. And we’re not exactly talking about teens who can’t get part-time work for chump change — many of these young people are looking for full-time work.

Where are the jobs? Still a tourism and study abroad hub, the hospitality and restaurant sector seems to be the strongest hiring prospect in this country.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey

FIRING: Ireland

-3% of companies plan to hire vs. plan to fire 

Unemployment rate: 13.7%

Firing spree: Northern Ireland counties are set to cut 30,000 public sector jobs in the next 4 years.

Where are the jobs? The Celtic Tiger no longer roars as the government battles soaring GDP deficits, a mass exodus of foreign businesses from its borders, a hallowed restructuring of the Anglo Irish Bank, and its devastated tourism stronghold. So where are the jobs? Nowhere – don’t hold your breath for green shoots in the Fourth Quarter.

*Source: Manpower Employment 2010 Q4 Outlook Survey

But the job market isn’t terrible in some states. Check out…

10 States With Ridiculously Low Unemployment

30-year bond futures show the carnage.

The big drop you see was a Treasury auction that Rick Santelli graded a “C-” because demand was sloppy.

But why is it seen as a bad thing? We’re not like Ireland, where we actually have to worry about a failed auction. Weak demand for Treasuries isn’t some kind of comment on our solvency. Instead it’s a reflection of risk appetite that’s pushing stocks higher today (albeit modestly so right now).

But then, it’s always bad news with the bond market. One day it’s flight-to-quality, the next day it’s solvency fears. You can spin it however you want.

NEW DELHI: Almost one-third of Indians are “utterly corrupt” and half are “borderline”, the outgoing head of the country’s corruption watchdog has said, blaming increased wealth for much of the problem. 

Pratyush Sinha, who retired as India’s Central Vigilance Commissioner this week, said the worst part of his “thankless job” was observing how corruption had increased as people became more materialistic. 

“When we were growing up I remember if somebody was corrupt, they were generally looked down upon,” he said. “There was at least some social stigma attached to it. That is gone. So there is greater social acceptance.” 

Transparency International, the global anti-graft body, puts India 84th on its corruption perception index with a 3.4-point rating, out of a best possible score of 10. 

New Zealand ranks first with 9.4 points and Somalia last on 1.1 points. 

The campaign group has said that each year millions of poor Indian families have to bribe officials for access to basic public services. 

Sinha told the Mint newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday that 20 per cent of Indians were “honest, regardless of the temptations, because this is how they are. They have a conscience. 

“There would be around 30 per cent who would be utterly corrupt. But the rest are the people who are on the borderline,” he said, adding that corruption was “palpable”. 

Sinha said that in modern India “if somebody has a lot of money, he is respectable. Nobody questions by what means he has got the money.” 

Recent corruption scandals in India have focused on construction projects for the Commonwealth Games that open in New Delhi next month, and alleged tax evasion in the lucrative Indian Premier League ( IPL) cricket tournament. 

India is also regarded as a hotbed of illegal betting syndicates, with gamblers and bookmakers involved in “spot-fixing” — the gambling that has engulfed the current Pakistani cricket tour of England. 

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has often spoken out against the damaging effect that bribes, extortion and fraud have on all levels of life, and warned that the problem threatens India’s future economic prospects.